The poll for the third phase was also a litmus test for the leadership of Prabhunath Singh, the former leader of Janata Dal (United) in Lok Sabha and a Rajput strongman, who switched over to the RJD on August 7 last. He was upset with Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar, even before any move was made to enact a law on thebataidar last year. He holds Nitish directly responsible for his defeat in the Lok Sabha last year.  

The political fate of the jailed RJD leader, Mohammad Shahabuddin also hangs in the balance. After the stunning defeat of his wife, Hena Shahab, in the last year Lok Sabha election this former RJD MP is just keeping his fingers crossed.

The M-Y equation in Siwan came under strain last year when the Muslims voted for Hena and Yadavs for the independent candidate, Om Prakash Yadav, who subsequently won. Om Prakas was a rebel Janata Dal (United) candidate.

However, this year some efforts were made to bridge the gap between Muslims and Yadavs in the region. Shahabuddin from inside the jail reportedly asked his followers to throw their weight behind the RJD.

Siwan and Gopalganj witnessed slightly less turnout because these two districts have very high migration rate. True migration is a state-wide  phenomenon, but in these two districts it is somewhat different. Here a large number of Muslims live in Gulf and their families have shifted to Patna or Delhi for the sake of education of their children. This is the post-1990 development. They may be voters of these two districts but live elsewhere.

There are many seats on the border with Nepal and Uttar Pradesh. Thus the influence of the Bahujan Samaj Party can not be ruled out. In at least one assembly constituency the party’s candidate is very much in contest.

Gopalganj has the distinction of producing highest number of chief ministers in the state. They are Abdul Ghafoor, Lalu Yadav and Rabri Devi. 

A fairly under-reported fact is that it is not the BJP or Janata Dal (United), which openly defied the brute power of Shahabuddin in his heydays, but the CPI ML, which stood like a rock against him. It lost some of its cadres too in the process. Even today CPI ML is giving a tough challenge to the other bigger parties in a couple of seats in the district. In contrast the Janata Dal (United), a few of months back, reportedly sent an overture, to Shahabuddin and his wife.

Much was at stake for Ram Vilas Paswan in this third phase. Though he originally hails from Khagaria district of Bihar, he made Hajipur his political home. In the last year Lok Sabha election he suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of 90-year old Janata Dal (United) candidate and former chief minister, Ram Sunder Das. This time he, along with Lalu and Prabhunath Singh had formed a new combination called PMRY (Paswan, Muslim, Rajput and Yadav).

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