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          New Delhi/Mumbai, April 25 (IANS) In a firm warning that all is   not well with the Indian economy, the country's outlook was lowered Wednesday to   negative from stable by Standard and Poors' with the caveat that its credit   rating may also be downgraded.
 |  But the government said there was no need to panic.
 As of now, the global   ratings agency has kept India's long-term rating unchanged at BBB minus -- its   lowest investment-grade rating. Any downgrade will not only add to borrowing   costs and assign a "junk" status to India's government bonds but also turn   investors cautious.
 
 "The outlook revision reflects our view of at least   one-in-three likelihood of downgrade if external position continues to   deteriorate, growth prospects diminish, or progress on reforms remains slow in a   weakened political setting," S&P analyst Takahira Ogawa said.
 
 In a   separate action, the agency also lowered its outlook to negative for four   state-run finance companies -- Exim Bank of India, India Infrastructure Finance   Co, Indian Railway Finance Corp and Power Finance Corp. They, too, stare at a   hike in borrowing costs.
 
 The announcements drew immediate reaction from   Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee.
 
 "I am concerned, but I don't feel   panicky because I am confident that our economy will grow by around 7 percent,   if not plus. We will be able to control fiscal deficit and it will be around 5.1   percent," Mukherjee told reporters in New Delhi.
 
 The remark came against   the backdrop of the S&P analyst assessing India's gross domestic product   (GDP) growth at growth at 7 percent this fiscal, and the per capital income to   to 5.3 percent against an average of around 6 percent in the past five   years.
 
 But what comes as a matter of even more concern is Ogawa's   assessment over a conference call that India's fiscal deficit could widen to   around 8 percent in the current fiscal year, against the government's budgeted   target of 5.1 percent.
 
 "A downgrade is likely if the country's economic   growth prospects dim, its external position deteriorates, its political climate   worsens, or fiscal reforms slow," Ogawa warned.
 
 But the finance minister   sought to play down the warning, saying the government was not only hopeful of   meeting growth and fiscal deficit targets, but will also pursue reforms even   while admitting there were delays due to a number of   factors.
 
 Technically, India has been assigned a 'A-3' short-term   sovereign credit ratings. The rating agency had, in fact, warned in February --   well before the federal budget was tabled in parliament -- that it may change   its outlook for India to negative.
 
 Industry was quick to react. Leading   industry lobbies said there was now an urgent need to push the reforms programme   forward to send the right signal, especially on a uniform goods and services   tax, direct tax code and further easing foreign investment   norms.
 
 "Further opening up India in sectors such as aviation, insurance   and opening up multi-brand retailing will help improve foreign capital inflows   and also improve investors' sentiment," said the Confederation of Indian   Industry.
 
 Even S&P has said that India's ratings can stabilise again   if the government implements initiatives to reduce structural fiscal deficits   and to improve its investment climate, with a series of decisions.
 
 "Fiscal measures could include an increase in domestic prices and a more   efficient use of fuel and fertiliser subsidies, or an early implementation of   the goods and service tax," Ogawa said during the conference call.
 
 At the   same time the agency said high fiscal deficits and a heavy debt burden remain   the most significant constraints on ratings and expected only modest progress in   reforms, given the current political gridlock and the impending elections in May   2014.
 
 The agency rates countries based on factors including political   risks, growth prospects, external liquidity, international investment position,   fiscal performance, debt burden, and flexibility of the monetary   system.
 
 According to experts, a shift in the outlook from stable to   negative means a country's credit rating stands the risk of a downgrade. In that   event, the risk factor of lending money to the country rises, makes its   sovereign bonds less attractive.
 
 
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