|  | 
      
        | 
            
            
            
          
           |   
          
          
          
          New Delhi, March 15 (IANS) India's economic growth will rebound   to 7.6 percent in 2012-13 on the back of softening inflation and better   industrial production, enabling it to play an active role on the world stage and   influencing international trade, capital flows and governance of global   financial institutions, the Economic Survey 2011-12 said Thursday.
 |  The survey, tabled by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in parliament, projected   8.6 percent expansion in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in   2013-14.
 "The economic growth is expected to remain at 7.6 percent, plus   or minus 0.25 percent, in 2012-13 and it will improve further to 8.6 percent in   2013-14," said Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu.
 
 The economy is   estimated to expand 6.9 percent in the current financial year ending March   31.
 
 The survey, presented a day before the annual budget, said inflation   will remain in the range of 6.5-7 percent by the end of March. It projected a   further moderation in inflationary pressure in 2012-13.
 
 "A favourable   base effect in prices and continued global slowdown are expected to moderate   inflation to around 6.5 to 7 percent by March and further moderate in the months   ahead, barring unexpected shocks, such as oil prices in international markets.
 
 It may further moderate during 2012-13 due to tightening of monetary   policy and other measures put in place by the government," the survey   added.
 
 Inflation in the current fiscal has largely been driven by high   food prices. It had slipped to a low of 6.6 percent in January, but rebounded to   almost 7 percent in February.
 
 The survey, however, said fiscal   consolidation was the only way to keep inflation down.
 
 "But despite the   low growth figure of 6.9 percent, India remains one of the fastest growing   economies of the world as all major countries including the fast growing   emerging economies are seeing a significant slowdown."
 
 According to the   survey, industrial production is likely to improve in the next financial year.
 
 The survey also touched on politically contentious issues like allowing   foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail and reducing subsidies   especially on diesel.
 
 "Allowing FDI in multi-brand retail is one of the   major issues in this sector. This could begin in a phased manner in the metros,   with the cap at a lower level coupled with incentivising the existing 'mom and   pop' stores (kirana shops) to modernise and compete effectively with the retail   shops, foreign or domestic," it said.
 
 The decision to allow foreign   direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail was rolled back after a huge   furore in the parliament with opposition and even key constituents of the United   Progressive Alliance government vehemently opposing it.
 
 Talking to   reporters outside parliament shortly after tabling the annual document, the   finance minister said the survey would help create healthy discussions, but the   government would not be able to implement it in totality.
 
 "The   government may adopt few suggestions but one should not expect that the Budget   will reflect the survey in its entirety," Mukherjee said.
 
 The survey   suggested that diesel price should be revised upward and taxes on diesel-run   vehicles should be increased to control its misuse.
 
 "Diesel price   adjustments have lagged international prices in recent years, and budgetary   subsidies have ballooned. At the same time such low prices and subsidies are   providing incentives for misuse," the document said.
 
 Recognising that   self-interest drives a market economy, the survey said India will stagnate and   remain in the grips of chaotic poverty in the absence of morality and   persistence of graft.
 
 "We now know that a market economy cannot function   if people are totally self-serving," said the survey.
 
 "While   self-interest is a major driver of economic growth, it is important to recognize   that honesty, integrity, and trustworthiness constitute the cement that binds   society."
 
 As the country enters the 12th Five Year Plan April 1, the   survey said, the challenges before it are to lay down a sound foundation with a   major push for building infrastructure, building human capital, and eradicating   poverty and malnutrition.
 
 
 comments... |  
   |