The Supreme Court’s rejection of RJD chief, Lalu Yadav’s plea to transfer the judge is likely to give a new shape to the politics of the state. The big question is: if the ruling came as a blow to him, who is going to be benefited by it.

If the Ranchi CBI court finds him guilty and convicts him in the fodder scam case the future of his party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, may be in jeopardy.

True he had gone to jail in the fodder scam cases in the past; but that was under-trial and in his own state. This would be the first time that he would be convicted and in that way will not be able to contest unless and until the high court or Supreme Court strikes down the conviction.

But then the Lok Sabha election is too near and by that time Lalu may not be able to get any relief from any higher court.

The problem with most regional outfits in India is that they are one-man or one-woman show and are mostly family limited companies.

Similar is the case with Lalu Yadav’s RJD. True there are a few second-rung leaders in the party but since there is dynastic culture other leaders may not find place at the top.

While in 1997 Lalu managed to pass on the mantle to Rabri Devi, who had no knowledge and experience of politics the question is will he do so this time too.

The answer is that Lalu is not in position to do so now. Rabri is no match to Nitish Kumar, who is now the chief minister of the state. Unlike in the past even Lalu’s most ardent votaries may not like his spouse to succeed him. If Lalu repeats the same mistake it would provide a cakewalk for his political rivals.

Lalu’s problem is that he has no Akhilesh Yadav like mature son. During the Parivartan Rally of May 15 the media highlighted the story of the presence of Lalu Yadav’s sons on the stage. Quoting Nitish Kumar even senior journalists wrote that the only purpose of the rally was to launch his two sons.

pix: Manish Sinha

The truth is that his sons have already been launched as they have accompanied their parents in public meetings, rallies and election campaign in the past.

What is of concern for Lalu is that age-wise they are too young to be thrust as the leader in a big way for 2014 Lok Sabha election. The eldest son Tej Pratap has crossed the age of 25––he is 26––to contest election, but he does not appear too much inclined towards politics.

The second one, Tejsavi, may touch 25 by the time 2014 Lok Sabha or 2015 Assembly election are held and may thus be eligible to fight election. He is more inclined to politics.

But then they would be no match to Akhilesh Yadav of UP, who is about a decade and a half senior to them and is much more mature.

So if Lalu was really launching his two sons in last May’s rally it may be that he had a long term plan for them. They may be of little use for him immediately.

He does not have Chandrababu Naidu-type son-in-law in Bihar though six of his seven daughters are married––a couple of them in the family of politicians of UP and Haryana. Apart from the eldest, Misa Bharati, none of his daughters are too visible in the public life and are not inclined to politics.

So if Lalu is convicted the leaderless RJD may become a rudderless organization. True the party has of late shown promise of a comeback as Yadavs and Muslims are once again tilting towards it. A section of Upper Castes, OBCs and Dalits have also softened their stand towards him.

But whom will they vote if there is no Lalu to encash the growing disenchantment with Nitish after the split with BJP. The saffron party has already emerged strong after June 16 development. So if Lalu is jailed it may once again get some of the votes, which otherwise would have gone to RJD.

But the bigger problem is with the Yadavs and Muslims––the core of RJD. Most Yadavs now do not want to see Nitish in power, but they would have no alternative left.

The case of Muslims is all too complicated. True Nitish tries to project himself as the champion of secularism by snapping ties with BJP, but the move did not cut much ice among the community as most Muslims feel that he is the one who had helped made BJP so strong in Bihar. A spate of communal riots in the last few weeks seriously dented his image further. Even some top Muslim JD(U) leaders blame him as well as BJP for unnecessary communal polarization in the state.

RJD was the one party which was pleased by these developments. But then what will be their response once Lalu is convicted.

Most political observers agree that in such a situation Nitish may once again try to project himself as the savior of Muslims and take a big chunk of the community votes as it may not vote for Narendra Modi-led BJP.

But if Lalu is acquitted in this particular case, as he––along with his wife––was in disproportionate assets case on Dec 18, 2006, it would come as a shot in arm to him and may pose a bigger challenge to his rivals.