Patna,(BiharTimes): The release of Lalu Yadav on December 16 has, after a long time, given the rank and file of Rashtriya Janata Dal an occasion to celebrate. The party has got an opportunity to motivate its workers and bring new life to the organization, which was in a state of stupor.

On the other hand in the form of Hunkar Rally the BJP got something very significant to perk up the fighting spirit of the cadres and supporters. The elevation of Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial candidate, replacing aged partriarch, Lal Krishna Advani, gave a new impetus to the saffron brigade. The serial blasts in Patna only came as a windfall.

But the third party in Bihar, the Janata Dal (United), which is in power in the state, is still groping for such pre-election opportunity, to give a boost to the confidence of the workers and supporters. After the June 16 split the leaders and members, both at higher as well as lower rung, appear confused and somewhat demoralized. They are not aware as to whom to fight––the BJP or RJD––more forcefully.

It is in this background that the bail to RJD supremo is being interpreted in the political circle. The conviction of Lalu Prasad, instead of weakening him, went on to make him more strong. Many political observers are of the view that two factors contributed to RJD’s revival. The first is split in the NDA, which strongly dented the social base of Janata Dal (United). Second is the Patna high court ruling of October 9, which acquitted all the 26 accused of Lakshmanpur-Bathe massacre of December 1997. It sent a wrong message to the Mahadalits and Extreme Backward Castes, as they were the victims of the repeated carnages committed by Ranvir Sena.

It is true that Nitish Kumar is addressing Sankalp rallies all over the state. His Purnea rally of Sunday evoked a good response. The Janata Dal (United) has decided to hold a dozen such shows in the state.

But then even RJD too has launched its Parivartan Yatra and Rabri Devi is visiting various nooks and corners of the state and drawing huge crowd. Now Lalu too is likely to join this Yatra.

The BJP leaders too are going to masses with rallies and public meetings. The party has already launched a big campaign to collect iron for the construction of world’s largest statue of Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel in Gujarat.

It is true Nitish is raking up the special category status, Bihari sub-nationalism and development as the issues to mobilize masses in the support of his party. But they are not enough to give new energy to the party.

Development, without political equation and social base, does not always yield good result. The example of defeat of Congress in Rajasthan and Delhi is before him. If Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh returned to power for the third time in a row it is not just because of development, but also because of the right political and social combination.

Nitish has lost this after he snapped his ties with the BJP.

As after the June 16 split the JD(U) lost its winnability quality a large number of floating votes, which otherwise went to the then NDA may either go to RJD-led alliance or BJP. It is true the JD(U) had carve out space among the Mahadalits, EBCs and a section of minorities but it is also a fact that these communities were voting for him because he was leading a winning combination. Now that this winnability is being questioned the votes would simply get disintegrated.

The split in the NDA deprived both the BJP and JD(U) an opportunity to transfer each other votes at the time of election but the latter now fears losing upper caste votes to the former.

The voters are well aware that at its peak the JD(U) got just 22 per cent votes while RJD at its lowest 19 per cent. The latter wold certainly be greatly benefited if it goes into alliance with LJP and Congress––together the two parties got around 15 per cent votes in 2010 Assembly election.
It is NDA as a whole which got 39.1 per cent votes in 2010 Assembly election. With BJP no more with it the results in the coming Lok Sabha election can only be guessed.

After the debacle of Congress in four states the Janata Dal (United) hurriedly distanced itself from it. The RJD, in spite of the defeat, has made it clear that it would stand behind it.

The defeat has weakened the bargaining position of Congress. It would not be in position to arm-twist the RJD, whose fortune is on the upswing.

But then it is five more months to go for the poll and anything can happen. After all seven months back nobody imagined that the NDA would split in Bihar and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) would be greatly weakened. Will it recover? Only time can tell.