Survey reveals chink in Nitish’s armour

Patna,(BiharTimes): The Hindu-CNN- IBN-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey done after the split in the NDA suggests that while the BJP and RJD are big gainers the vote-shares of chief minister Nitish Kumar’s party, the Janata Dal (United) show slight improvement.

The survey shows an increase in the vote share of all the major parties, barring the Congress, which remained stagnant at 10 per cent. The vote shares of the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) were up by one percentage point and five percentage points respectively.

While JD(U)’s figure increased from 24 per cent to 25 per cent and of RJD from 19 per cent to 24 per cent the biggest gainer turned out to be the BJP whose vote share went up eight percentage points, that is, from 14 per cent to 22 per cent.

As the JD(U) is likely to contest all the seats that is why there is one per cent increase in vote share. Otherwise there is nothing for the party to feel happy.

According to the survey around 38 per cent of respondents overall said Nitish Kumar should have accepted Narendra Modi’s leadership.

Strangely about 41 per cent of respondents among the Kurmi-Koeri castes, who form the JD(U)’s core vote base, said he should have accepted Modi. Surprisingly, 24 per cent of Muslims felt the same way. The question whether the BJP should have saved the alliance by not promoting Modi elicited similar replies, except from Muslims. Only 20 per cent of respondents overall said the BJP should have kept Modi out. The figure was slightly higher for the Kurmi-Koeri castes with 27 per cent endorsing the view that the alliance could have been saved by not promoting Modi. Among Muslims, the share of people feeling this was far higher at 35 per cent.

The survey said if Nitish does want to play a greater role on the national stage, the respondents would prefer that he picks the Congress.

A majority of the respondents believe that corruption, crime and bureaucratic dominance has increased in the state.

But there is no dearth of political observers who question the timing of the survey as the result came after the Bodh Gaya blasts and killing of 23 children in Saran district. 

“Is this an exercise to promote Nitish Kumar, when he is facing steep decline in popularity? How can his vote share increase by one per cent even after breaking with BJP and when a large number of his own voters blame him for the split with the saffron party,” asks a political observer, who wished not to be quoted.