Ditched by the DMK and kept guessing by the mercurial duo from Uttar Pradesh—Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati—the Congress is looking further east, towards Bihar, to ensure UPA survives till the 2014 general elections.
The feelers and pointers that Nitish Kumar is being wooed have been there for some time now. Nitish’s performance as chief minister has come in for praise from none other than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, that too in Parliament. Finance Minister P Chidambaram mentioned the need for revisiting the criterion of “special status” state, a long-standing demand of the Bihar chief minister. A meeting between Ahmed Patel, political secretary to Congress President Sonia Gandhi, and JD(U) President Sharad Yadav has only lent credence to the speculation of a new political alignment.
After enjoying his role as a powerful satrap for years, Nitish stepped into the national arena with his Adhikar Rally in Delhi on March 17. His address during the rally not only rattled national players but also served to confuse politicians in his home state.
The rally was supposedly organised to highlight Bihar’s demand for special status. But when he said, “Ya toh abhi do, ya chaudah ke baad zaroor do ge (Either give special category status now or after 2014 elections),” Nitish’s post-poll plans were clear.
The message was crystal clear—after 2014, JD(U) would be in a comfortable position to bargain with the BJP or the Congress on the issue of special status. The indication was that the party was open to any alliance, and it was for the Congress to decide how it would win over Nitish’s confidence.
It is no secret that relations between ruling coalition leaders are at best strained. Sniping at each other’s heels is common and some senior leaders like Ashwini Kumar Choubey of the BJP have gone on record to state that his party was preparing to contest all 40 Parliamentary seats in the state on its own.
However, it also remains a fact that Nitish’s political graph soared only after he formed an alliance with the BJP in 1996. Analysts feel that a divorce at this point would cost both the BJP and the JD(U) heavily and division of votes would only help common arch rival Lalu Prasad Yadav.
At the same time, Lalu could be hurt if Nitish drifted towards the Congress, as it could translate to large-scale desertion of minority votes. Also should the Congress find an ally in Nitish, it would mean a revival of sorts for the party at the state level.
Sources in the Congress admitted that the party was engaged in doing some serious homework to work out the pros and cons of joining hands with the JD(U) .
Nitish, on his part, has been effectively marketing the state’s recent spurt in growth and his claims of inclusive development. A section of the media actually went ahead to compare his model of development with that of Narendra Modi.
But there is a catch. “It is a myth that Nitish is practising a different model of development. The very concept of inclusive development and growth with justice has been the key objective of 11th Five Year Plan and almost all states have been practising the same. In Bihar, despite double digit growth, poverty has also increased,” said economist N K Choudhary.
Whatever the real story economically, the recent strategic move by Nitish to mobilise a large number of non-resident Biharis, particularly those living in Delhi, on the issue of asserting Bihari sub-nationalism, appears to have paid off. A large contingent of 40 lakh Biharis is a powerful vote bank for the coming Assembly polls in Delhi, a factor that might further propel the Congress to the JD(U).
Now, it remains to be seen whether the demand for special status would help Nitish grow out of Bihar and get space in national politics or cost him dear in his state.
Published in The Sunday Standard
