Patna,(BiharTimes): Apart from Hunkar Rally it is a couple of recent court rulings, which have become the talking point in the drawing rooms of the urban middle class as well as rural chaupals in Bihar.

Some political observers are of the view that it is these judgements, which may in the long run, play more significant role in shaping the politics of Bihar than the BJP’s mass mobilization at Gandhi Maidan on October 27.

Mind it Narendra Modi’s show was preceded by CPI’s rally on Oct 25 and will be followed by the CPI ML’s on October 30.

The September 30, 2013 Ranchi CBI court ruling against Lalu Yadav may not have attached so much significance had it not been followed by the acquittal of 26 Ranvir Sena men by Patna high court in the Lakshmanpur-Bathe massacre case on October 9 last. It is this acquittal––rather than the earlier conviction of Lalu Yadav––which actually started generating sympathy for the RJD chief.

The court ruling may have nothing to do with politics, but that is not the way things are interpreted by different section of the society.

Those who see conspiracy angle in Lalu Yadav’s conviction got an ample opportunity to find the hands of the Nitish Kumar government in the acquittal of the alleged perpetrators of Lakshmanpur-Bathe massacre. They are now accusing Nitish Kumar government of not putting up the case properly before the court. This is the fourth case of acquittal of Ranvir Sena men by the Patna high court in the massacre of Dalits in the last 18 months.

The other three are Bathani Tola, Nagri and Miyanpur massacre cases.

After Nitish Kumar snapped his ties with Janata Dal (United) experts started saying that his party would lose a substantial upper caste votes, which would shift towards the BJP. It was also felt that Nitish would be left with Extremely Backward Caste, Mahadalit and Koeri-Kurmi votes. Analysts were also of the view that Muslim votes would get divided between Janata Dal (United) and RJD, though the former appears to be losing grip on the community.

But the recent court rulings have the potential to change the political scenario.

Now it is the upper caste votes, which seem to be getting divided between BJP and Janata Dal (United) as the supporters of latter are busy propagating that the accused of Bathe got released only because of the role of the state government. So once again a serious attempt is being made by JD(U) to regain its foothold among the landed upper castes. It is being said now that BJP is the party essentially of the trading community and it is JD(U) which would serve the interest of farming communities in volatile rural Bihar.

The victims of the Ranvir Sena massacres––the Mahadalits and Extremely Backward Castes now see a more dangerous trend of the upper caste assertion. This mood can be gauged more in the area where Ranvir Sena was really strong in the past. Suddenly this class has once again started developing soft corner for Lalu Yadav.

Lalu Yadav has not only been jailed, he has also been disqualified from the Lok Sabha. Interestingly, two of the three other politicians who got convicted in the fodder scam case are upper castemen––JD(U) MP Jagdish Sharma is a Bhumihar and former CM and now JD(U) leader Jaganath Mishra is a Brahmin. Sharma, who never lost any Assembly or Parliament election since 1977––has also been disqualified from the Lok Sabha.

So more than conviction in fodder scam case it is Bathe case ruling which may prove a game changer.

As among backwards, especially Yadavs, there is growing realization among Muslims too as to why of all the corrupt politicians of the country it was Rasheed Masood, who not only got convicted but also disqualified from the Rajya Sabha. Rasheed Masood is from UP and very few Muslims even know about him. But since he and Lalu have faced the same sort of double punishment both have generated sympathy among respective community. Not just Yadav and other backward castes a large section of Muslims––those who even voted for Nitish in 2010––are perturbed over this development.

So political observers now feel it would not be so easy for JD(U) to get so much Muslim votes as last time. Similarly, it may not be so easy for the BJP to walk away with all the upper caste votes as is being made out.

But as JD(U) was busy privately trying to encash the Lakshmanpur-Bathe acquittal came the killing of Sushil Pandey, a former Ranvir Sena man, along with six others in Obra block of Aurangabad district.
The BJP was quick to capitalize on it with its national vice president, Dr C P Thakur, apprehending another phase of caste war in Bihar. He held none else but the state government responsible for the killing of these seven Bhumihars in landmine blast.