26/04/2014

 

Jump in voters’ turn-out not necessarily due to anti-incumbency factor

 


Patna,(BiharTimes): The high-polling percentage in all the seven parliamentary seats, which went to poll on April 24, especially Kishanganj, has made many political pundit sit-up and give a fresh thought to the general impression that voters’ turn-out is often high when the anti-incumbency factor is at work.
The figure of Kishanganj parliamentary constituency can be taken as a sample for any such study. It witnessed more than 11 per cent rise in the percentage of voting though the fact is that after the withdrawal of Janata Dal (United) candidate, Akhtar-ul-Iman, from the fray the result was a foregone conclusion; that is the Congress nominee, Maulana Asrar-ul-Haque may win comfortably.

The anti-incumbency factor is not working against both the ruling party and the candidate here.

In 2009 the constituency registered 52.84 per cent votes, which jumped to 64 per cent this time.

Kishanganj is only second to Bhagalpur in the percentage of increase in vote.

The silk town saw a jump from 43.89 last time to 57.8 per cent this time.

The increase in other constituencies is not very significant. In Supaul it rose from 54.52 per cent in 2009 to 59 per cent this time, Araria from 55.71 to 60 per cent, Katihar from 56.94 to 64 per cent, in Banka from 48.74 to 56 per cent and Purnea from 53.98 per cent to 59 per cent.

The rise in Kishanganj seat is a pointer to the fact that the turn-out can be high even if the voters want to stop somebody from coming to power.

After the third phase of poll analysts have started saying that the voters’ turn-out is much high in the booths where Muslims and Yadavs have sizeable voters than in other places.

If this is really true than it explodes the myth that high turn-out means vote against the established government, but it suggests that the high turn-out also means to stop someone from coming to power.

In this era of tele-communication and information explosion there is more scope of tactical voting and last minute decision making.

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