History seems to be repeating itself for the BJP, but with a difference.

In 1995 election Nitish Kumar’s Samata Party won only seven out of 324 seats in the then Bihar Assembly. It could get this much seats when it fought in alliance with the CPI ML.

Yet a few months later the BJP forged an alliance with it and the two parties contested Lok Sabha election together in 1996. They performed well and by 1998 the National Democratic Alliance was in power.

The BJP then made Nitish Kumar the chief ministerial candidate in 2000 even when the Samata Party, the then version of Janata Dal (United), won less seats in the state Assembly election.

In the two Assembly elections in 2005 the BJP left more seats for the Janata Dal (United) to contest. Thus the leader of just seven MLAs emerged to become one of the most powerful chief ministers of Bihar.

The BJP nursed the Janata Dal (United) for 17 long years before getting a kick on the back. Before June 16 none of its 11 ministers quit the cabinet in protest against Nitish’s repeated attack on Narendra Modi. In fact Sushil Modi went on to find prime ministerial material in Nitish Kumar himself.

No doubt the BJP too gained much in the 17 years of association with Janata Dal (United). But the alliance with weak Nitish was the political compulsion of the saffron party as it was not so strong then. It was the allainc with Nitish’s outfit which helped the NDA do better and ultimately paved the way for Atal Bihari Vajpayee to become PM.

But the situation is totally different today. All the pre-poll surveys predict that the BJP alone is going to win between 21 and 25 seats in Bihar and the NDA would get around 225 seats nationally, which is much higher than in 1998 and 1999.

The hurry with which the BJP entered into alliance first with Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and then almost with the Lok Janshakti Party exposes only two things: either all the surveys are totally wrong or there is no such Narendra Modi wave in Bihar. It is because of this reason that the party is panicky and leaving at least 10 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats for the two parties which together have just one MLA in 243-member House.

So by that yardstick the saffron party may end up leaving something around 70 seats for LJP and RSLP in the Assembly election in 2015. A few years later it would leave more and ultimately end up making either Ram Vilas Paswan or Upendra Kushwaha the chief minister of the state.

In fact Ram Vilas and Upendra had a much chequered political career and are known party-hoppers. They have their own quota of dreaded gangsters in their camps than Nitish. Grapevine had is that Sadhu Yadav may get the ticket from RLSP as the BJP is finding it difficult to adjust him. Similarly, if Ranvir Yadav is not going to get ticket, his wife, Poonam Devi, may get one from Khagaria.

What the BJP is unable to fathom is that Nitish at least had a better image than Ram Vilas and Kushwaha among the upper caste votes. Besides, he was among the first to broke away from the Mandal camp. Thus they transferred their votes to him and in return both the parties became strong.

In total contrast, the tie up with RSLP and LJP––though the final announcement is yet to be made––would turn the upper caste votes away.

A political pundit summed it up this way: “Alone the BJP would have won 25 seats, but in alliance with them it may win 17-18 and if things continue to deteriorate it may end up winning just 12, which it has now.” So it would be back to square one.