Patna,(BiharTimes): While the RJD-Congress-LJP-NCP alliance has already been formalized and only final announcement is awaited political observers have now started debating as to why the idea of the Janata Dal (United)-Congress tie up failed to click.

Notwithstanding initial hesitation of Rahul Gandhi, especially after the conviction of Lalu Prasad, the alliance with the RJD has virtually been sealed. Many analysts are of the view that it may prove a game-changer in Bihar.

Sources within the Congress said that Rahul Gandhi has slightly changed his stand on conviction of Lalu Prasad in the fodder scam case. It is now being argued that the tie up is being done between two parties––the Congress and RJD––and not individuals. After all Lalu would automatically not be contesting it because of conviction.

So the Congress now thinks that it would be better to cash in on the sympathy generated for Lalu after his conviction and join hands with the RJD.

In contrast Janata Dal (United) would be facing the weight of incumbency in Bihar. With the law and order situation much worse than any time in the past public resentment is growing fast against the Nitish Kumar government. If the Congress––which too has been facing the heat of incumbency at the Centre––joins hand with the JD(U) the combination would not yield much better result.

Though RJD did not contest with the Congress in 2009 yet it always stood strongly behind the UPA and always opposed the saffron brigade. In contrast the JD(U)’s 17 years long association with the BJP can never be forgotten. In fact both the parties helped each other grew strong in Bihar. The Congress decision-makers finally came to the conclusion that they would get much more Muslim, and even backward and Dalit votes, while aligning with the RJD, rather than with the JD(U).

The Congress leadership found Lalu Prasad much more flexible. As the RJD chief was fighting the last ditch battle for his political survival he kept on praising the Congress leadership and agreed to leave 10-11 seats for it while the JD(U), according to sources, was not in position to leave more than six or seven for the Congress.

Though after the break of alliance with the BJP––and even before––the Congress central leadership did extend the hands of friendship towards Nitish the latter failed to capitalize on it. The four Congress MLAs even supported the Nitish government at the time of trust vote on June 19 last.

Union ministers made a beeline to Bihar and once the Bihar chief minister even went to the extent of droping the Union finance minister P Chidambaram to the Sadaquat Ashram, the Congress party’s state headquarters. He did this when the alliance with the NDA was not finally over.

The Congress found Nitish a bit arrongant and unyielding. His past record of betraying those who have supported him also came in the way of any alliance with the Congress.

Though Janata Dal (United) supported the Congress candidate Pranab Mukherjee for the President in 2012––even when it was a part of the NDA––yet the Congress is aware of the fact that Nitish did not hesitate a minute in snapping his quarter century long relationship with the best friend Lalu Yadav and than 17 years long association with the BJP. In any case Nitish can never be a trustworthy partner.

Lalu, on the other hand, forcefully cited the example of fighting election unitedly in Bihar. He repeatedly pleaded that in 2004 the RJD-Congress-LJP alliance walked away with 29 seats simply because they fought unitedly. They won so many seats when nobody ever dreamed of a Congress comeback in the Centre as all the mediapersons and pollsters were predicting the return of Vajpayee government to power.

Contrary to that these three parties were routed in 2009 in Bihar in spite of much better UPA performance elsewhere in the country. The reason was simple: they fought separately.

Finally while Lalu directly approached the high command and met Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi a couple of times in the recent weeks the Janata Dal (United) leadership maintained its stiffness. There was no conduit to work between the two parties. Besides, Janata Dal (United) has men like Sharad Yadav, who has pathological hatred for the Congress.

Similarly the idea of JD(U)-LJP did not click though some upper caste leaders of Ram Vilas Paswan’s party wanted it so. If Janata Dal (United) was not prepared to give more than six or seven seats to the Congress how many seats it would have left for LJP can only be guessed. So all the talks of JD(U)-LJP alliance remained only in the media and actually no headway whatsoever was made in this direction.

Analysts are of the view that the problem with Nitish Kumar is that he has not made just one mistake by breaking the alliance with the BJP. He is continuously committing one blunder after another. Many senior party leaders are shocked at the way he dropped the three trusted lieutents from Rajya Sabha and publicly humiliated them on the occasion of Karpoori Thakur’s birthday celebration. With this position it would be hard to believe of any JD(U)-Left alliance in Bihar too.