Though the Bharatiya Janata Party leaders have in the recent weeks been openly praising chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi––in spite of the fact that they were extremely critical of him in the past––the truth is that the supporters of saffron party were taken aback when they came to know that only a dozen or so MLAs sided with the present CM. Of the 111 Janata Dal (United) legislators 97 backed Nitish Kumar. The Speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary, as per the general practice, did not attend the JD(U)LP meet.
It can safely be said that the first round went to Nitish, and both Manjhi and BJP got a big blow. The news came at very inappropriate time for the BJP––that is on February 7 evening when the post-poll surveys were suggesting that Aam Admi Party is heading for victory in Delhi Assembly election.The JD(U)LP meeting exposed the claim of former deputy CM, Sushil Kumar Modi, that more than 50 BJP MLAs are in touch with his party. He has been making this claim ever since the Rajya Sabha election held in June last year, which later led to the termination of the membership of eight JD(U) MLAs by the Speaker.
If these eight too are included the number of legislators with Manjhi is just 20 and no one can dream of making claim to run the government with so small number of legislators. As per the anti-Defection law the Manjhi camp always needed the support of two-thirds MLAs, which is 74 out of 111. Only then can the BJP ever think of supporting the government. So the only way left for Manjhi is to get the House dissolved and contest election as caretaker chief minister. But then the legal fraternity appears to be divided over the issue whether the cabinet with the support of just seven ministers,including the CM, can recommend the dissolution of the House.
Addressing the Press conference in New Delhi after meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday evening the Bihar chief minister appeared somewhat confident and came down heavily on his predecessor, Nitish Kumar.It seems that he is sure of getting some sort of support from the BJP. Nitish might have won the first round. The battle is a bit longer and much depends on the Assembly election to be held later this year.
Manjhi was well aware of his weaknesses. But he was actually doing the politics for post Assembly poll days. He was aware that even if JD(U) wins the election it is Nitish who would become the CM. His politics would come to an end as JD(U)-RJD-Congress combine has nothing to offer to him in the Centre.
In contrast if he paves the way for the BJP victory by ensuring some more Mahadalit votes he would certainly get return after the Assembly election. He may not be made the CM of Bihar as there are many claimants in the saffron brigade too. But the saffron party has an option to accommodate him anywhere in the Centre––as a Union cabinet minister, Governor or anything else.
As he sees no future in JD(U) after November 2015 it was natural for him to find an excuse to leave this party. Till now everything is going as per his gameplan.But the whole gamble is a bit risky. If the JD(U)-RJD combine comes back to power Manjhi may lose his bargaining power. Even the BJP would deem it fit to dump him.But then politicians do take calculated risk.
