The communal riots in Muzaffarpur village on January 18 in  which several lives were lost came at the time of a great  political uncertainty in Bihar. 

However, the killing may force the ruling Janata Dal  (United); the main opposition in the state, the Bharatiya  Janata Party and chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi to re-draw  their political strategies.

While the Janata Dal (United) Rajya Sabha MP, Ali Anwar, who  is considered close to the former chief minister Nitish Kumar  was quick to say that Muzaffarpur would not be allowed to  become Muzaffarnagar, the pattern of violence has some  similarities. In both the places the riots started in the  rural areas. 

The communal earthquake, which rocked Muzaffarnagar in  August-September 2013 helped the BJP sweep 73 out of 80 seats  in Uttar Pradesh in the last Lok Sabha election.

But there are some differences between the two places too. In  Muzaffarnagar a Muslim boy was accused of indulging in ‘love- jehad’. Days after the riots it was reported in the media  that this was not the story. 

In Muzaffarpur village it was a Hindu boy belonging to the  extremely backward caste, Sahni, who was accused of eloping  with a Muslim girl. He was allegedly abducted and later  killed. This sparked off violence leading to the loss of  lives and property of Muslims.

But politically the situation both for the ruling party and  opposition is much more difficult. The JD(U)-RJD alliance as  well as BJP-LJP-RLSP combine want the votes of both Muslims  and Sahnis. In UP the BJP wanted to woo the Jats and polarize  the atmosphere, but in Bihar, of late, it has repeatedly been  hinting of giving more seats to Muslims in the Assembly  election.

Besides, the riots came at the time when the BJP was actually  changing its gear and has started applauding chief minister  Jitan Ram Manjhi. Just hours before the riots broke out on  Sunday three Union ministers of the BJP, Rajeev Pratap Rudy,  Ram Kripal Yadav and Giriraj Singh, in their own words, were  showering praise on Manjhi saying that his rise has come as a  big blow to Nitish Kumar. On the same day state party chief  Mangal Pandey said in Darbhanga that Manjhi is not weak while  in Katihar Sushil Kumar Modi said that Bihar chief minister  and other leaders of the ruling JD(U) are in touch with the  BJP. The BJP leaders reiterated that they are ready to back  Manjhi, if any such situation arises.

Manjhi, who was on the religious as well as political  pilgrimage to Shirdi and New Delhi, had to fly back to Patna  on Monday and rush to the riots hit Azizpur village. In New  Delhi he was scheduled to meet the prime minister Narendra  Modi on January 20.

But the Muzaffarpur violence changed the entire political  situation. The same Mangal Pandey on Monday held the state  government responsible for the violence though he did not  name Manjhi.

Reports started appearing that JD(U) is even thinking in term  of replacing him. The violence has given the party an excuse  to bring back Nitish Kumar to power, it is being argued. The JD(U)-RJD combine can not afford to lose the faith of  Muslims in the Assembly election year. But they also want to  woo back the EBCs too and Sahnis or Nishads are politically  significant in several north Bihar constituencies, especially  Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, Hajipur etc.

But what will the BJP do with Manjhi if after the ouster he  crosses over to the saffron camp. At present he is not in  position to get the two-thirds support of JD(U) MLAs to  overcome the anti-defection hurdle. 

But once out from the post of chief minister will the BJP  project him as the chief ministerial candidate in the next  Assembly election? Perhaps not; as old guards like Sushil  Kumar Modi has his own ambition. 

So is it that Manjhil will fall between two stools? Has he  overplayed his cards and became too ambitious? After all in  the first few months no JD(U) leader of Nitish camp ever  spoke anything against him and talked of his removal. The  chief minister himself started asserting him and refused to  be Paneerselvam, as in the case of Tamil Nadu.

It was Anant Singh, the Mokama MLA close to Nitish, who was  first to call him as mad man and should be dispatched to the  mental hospital at Kanke in Ranchi after Manjhi had first  said that the upper castes are Aryans, who have come from  outside while SCs and STs are original people. Other party  MLA Sunil Pandey too flayed him.

But it was the more responsible leaders of the BJP who  publicly denounced Manjhi though in the past Sangh Parivar  used to hold the similar view about Aryan link.

But, if out of power, what will Manjhi do? He may lose some  of his bargaining position. He may join the BJP camp only  under the condition of better post-election accommodation in  the Centre, if not as the chief minister of Bihar.