“Jo Jeeta Woh Sikandar,” goes the saying.
After the victory in any election the victors often walk away with all credits and no objective assessment was made about the weakness of the winning party or individual.
The absence of a dispassionate study of the 2014 verdict is likely to haunt the BJP in the coming Assembly election in Bihar.
Though Narendra Modi factor was credited for the BJP’s win in the last Lok Sabha election, an independent analysis would lead to a different conclusion.
The fact is that notwithstanding the massive campaign in which thousands of crores were spent Modi could muster only 31 per cent votes, which is lowest for the winning party––not alliance––in the country so far.
Last time it was Rajiv Gandhi, who led the Congress to a thumping majority after the assassination of his mother, the then prime minister Indira Gandhi in 1984. Then the Congress got at least 15 per cent more votes than what the BJP got last year. Sympathy factor played a very crucial role.
Yet Modi’s performance is rated high as he snatched a victory from the ruling combination.
But a close look of the 2014 victory would reveal an interesting aspect. The truth is that more than Modi factor, it was the ‘modia factor’ ––that is Modi plus media––which paved the way for the BJP victory.
The media might not have campaigned for Narendra Modi as is alleged by many independent observers. But media did at least one thing. It played a very important role in decimating the Congress-led UPA. Ever since 2011 Anna Hazare fast hardly any media organization highlighted the good aspects of the UPA government. It was dubbed as a weak and corrupt government suffering from policy paralysis. The truth is that in the same period the UPA-II enacted several significant Acts be it related to land acquisition, food security, real estate and housing, street vendors etc.
It was this systematic demolition of the Manmohan Singh government which paved the way for Narendra Modi, who had already launched a high-pitch propaganda war.
Had a large section of media, especially the private electronic channels, not created such an atmosphere against the ruling government, Narendra Modi alone may not have won the election so handsomely.
Herein lies the crux of the matter. In the Delhi Assembly election, notwithstanding a massive electoral campaign by the BJP the media, on its own, could not destroy the image of Arvind Kejriwal and company. The Aam Admi Party stood up strongly and the BJP lost miserably. It is other thing that the bickering started later on within the Aam Admi Party.
While the Congress lost the election a couple of years before the May 2014 results, in Bihar this time the duo of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad are still in the race and giving a tough fight. As it was the same media and Modi––here Sushil Kumar––who created so much positive image of Nitish Kumar that it is really difficult to demolish it in such a short time. However, it is also true that the Nitish too has lost much of his sheen, especially after the Jitan Ram Manjhi drama.
In contrast the BJP is yet to put up its own contender for the post of chief minister. Till recently the saffron party has been teasing JD(U) and RJD to do so. But now when they have got united and announced their candidate the BJP has developed cold feet.
Unless and until the image of the BJP’s rival is decimated the saffron party can not dream of winning the election easily.