Bihar election is moving into a very interesting phase where either of the alliances, the National Democratic Alliance and Grand Alliance don’t want to make even a silly mistake but ride on other’s fault to score a point. A note of caution has been passed on to the leaders of both the side to be on high attention and keenly watch every move of the opposition. As a neutral observer if we assess the statements of Mohan Bhagwat on reservation and Lalu Prasad on beef, it is also clear that a statement in proper sense is manipulated to create an issue out of nonsense to score over their rivals. Both the alliances are working overtime to make every non- issue an issue while real issues are taking a backseat. It shows that Bihar election is going to be toughest one where politics is decided by a very thin divide line and both the alliances are struggling to make a clear cut edge which is still not visible as who is going to be Lalu- Nitish duo are desperately trying to make reservation and subaltern caste pride an issue while BJP led alliance is doing the same with Beef controversy and provoke religious sentiment to unite their vote banks. Putting it this way, the Grand Alliance is all out to attempt for caste polarization and National Democratic alliance is trying for communal polarization to gain benefit in this elections. In this freestyle game of politics everything is justified like love and war.

Grand Alliance leaders are racing against time to catch up with the pace of NDA during campaign. JDU- RJD- CONG leaders are doing 10 to 15 rallies while NDA leaders are managing about 25 to 30 rallies in a day. Interestingly almost a dozen of Union Cabinet members have landed in a posh hotel in Patna and moving in different regions of state to monitor election and campaign for the party. Earlier the Prime Minister has planned a dozen rallies but BJP has re- assessed the situation on ground zero and re- drawn the strategy to decide about 40 rallies for him. The fingers are crossed as the poll managers are busy making an assessment on day to- day basis about this high profile campaign, full of slant and rhetoric, that it will work wonder among the masses or backfire because a silly mistake or a slip of tongue can fall heavily on the BJP. The political observers say, it is the last battle for Lalu & Nitish to make a comeback and survive in politics while it is the toughest ever battle for Narendra Modi & Amit Shah since the formation of Union Government. The stakes are high on both the sides.

The society and politics of Bihar has changed since 1990s after Post- Mandal and Babri Demolition. 25 years onward, the Backward and Dalit communities which form about 70 percent of population are not in contradiction in the same manner against the upper caste and feudal forces which saw several massacres in the past. Also these subaltern communities have become equally conscious about their caste pride, identity and rights that invoking their religious sentiments to pit them against any minority or Muslims are not possible like before. Riding on Mandal wave, Lalu Prasad became the unquestionable leader of Dalit, OBC and Minorities which consists about 85 percent of population of Bihar. But things have even changed for Lalu also as the OBCs are not united like earlier and many caste groups are desperate for individual shareholding. Nitish Kumar rule during the last 10 years has shaped the political identity of Extremely Backward Castes by giving then a 20 percent reservation in three tier local bodies under Panchayati Raj system. These EBCs were once the backbone of anti- upper caste aggression and voted en block for Lalu Prasad. Later Nitish took initiative through several social welfare schemes and also separately created an ‘Extremely Backward Class Commission (Ati- Pichhda Aayog)’ to counter Lalu as well as create his own social constituency for the future politics. This has worked wonder and now the aspiration of EBCs is on high that they want their own people to enter Assemblies and Parliament. These EBCs voted in favour of Nitish in 2010 Assembly elections and also voted for Narendra Modi, who was proclaimed as an EBC, during 2014 Parliamentary election. Now it is really very interesting to see how these EBC votes are going to be divided between Nitish- Lalu and Narendra Modi.

On other side the about 20 percent of Dalit communities in Bihar got a big boost under Nitish regime through Maha- Dalit Aayog and Mahadalit Mission. Nitish Government gave special attention to ensure that all welfare schemes and their benefit reach these historically untouchable subalterns. The Dalit– Mahadalit divide created by Nitish to counter the influence of Ram Vilas Paswan and Lalu Prasad over these deprived community. Working on the same strategy Nitish made Jitan Ram Manjhi as his successor.

Now BJP has got a big shot in the arm as both these prominent Dalit leaders of Bihar are now in NDA fold. It will also be very interesting as how Dalit community votes are going to be divided between Lalu- Nitish duo and NDA because this will surely add to the advantage for any of the alliance in final tally.

Though every election rally of PM Modi is telecast live and people discussing the crowd gathered to listen to him but in comparison to his rallies during Parliamentary election 70 percent of the crowd is silent these days, not reacting and responding in the same manner. Lalu and Nitish is also attracting good crowd in all their rallies where the masses are equally responding to them. In the electoral scene of Bihar, the EBC and Dalit vote bank which forms about 40 percent are largely a mute spectator in order to avoid the contradictory reaction from very aggressive upper castes and the strong OBCs, Yadav- Kurmi- Kushwaha- Bania community. It is also evident that their votes will side with the less contradictory social block with reference to the caste dynamics prevailing in different districts and constituencies. Mandal is an issue which still gives a great sense of pride to these communities and Lalu- Nitish combine raising the Save Reservation echo is reaching to their ears. Not only this, they also understand the importance of development and need for economic diversity for their prosperity and progress. While JDU- RJD is countering the BJP allegation of ‘Jungle Raj’ with ‘Mandal Raj’ and in the same manner BJP is countering the ‘KamandalRaj’ allegation with ‘VikasRaj’. It is for the EBC and Dalit community to decide whom to vote for and they know that the key of future Government in Bihar lies with them but political pundits have to hold on to their heart because everything will be decided during the last hour of election date in each phase.

(Writer’s Introduction: Nikhil Anand is Loyola School, Patna & IIMC, Delhi alumnus. He is a Journalist and writes on social- political issues. Connect him through Twitter: NiKHiL_20July & FaceBook: NiKHiLAnand20July)