Patna,(BiharTimes): It is not that Uttar Pradesh did not have any upper caste chief minister since 1990––the year Mandal Commission report was implemented by the then prime minister Vishwanath Pratap Singh.
In fact the last BJP chief minister of the state was Rajnath Singh, who like Yogi Adityanath, is a Rajput. In that way UP is different from Bihar, which had two Yadav, a Kurmi and a Dalit or call it Mahadalit chief ministers.
Yet some political analysts feel that perhaps the era of Mandal-type politics in UP is over.
Unlike in early 1990s when the BJP preferred Kalyan Singh, a backward, over other upper caste leaders of the state, this time the BJP never hesitated in making an upper caste as the chief minister.
Though Yogi was made CM at the final moment the other leader whose name prominently figured was Manoj Sinha, minister of state of railways, who in fact is a Bhumihar.
So numerically the strongest backward and Dalit castes, Yadavs and Jatavs, as well as Jats, are feeling a bit marginalized.
True the Bharatiya Janata Party claims that it believes in inclusive development and see no caste division among Hindus yet the way BJP opted for Rajput CMs in both Uttarakhand and UP––after three already in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Manipur ––is causing some uneasiness within the party. It may increase further once the euphoria of victory subsides.
The sffron party also banked on upper caste leader in Haryana,Goa and Maharastra to head the government. Even Congress party too failed to come up with OBC leader in any major state where elections held in last few years.
"The ebbing away of Mandal politics at least in north India couldn't be concluded only on the basis of recent assembly elections results. The result of Bihar assembly says a different story" said a senior Congress leader.
The new Assembly has 44.3% upper caste MLAs, which is 12 per cent more than in 2012, and the highest since 1980.
As high as 48.2 per cent new BJP legislators belong to the upper castes against 23 per cent non-Yadav OBCs. The overall representation of OBCs in the Assembly has decreased slightly from 27 per cent in 2012 to 25.6 per cent this time. The percentage of Yadav MLAs is only five.
The highest number of Rajputs got elected to the Lok Sabha in 2014. In the latest UP Assembly election too about 60 of its MLAs are Rajputs.
In Uttarakhand about 20 newly elected legislators of the saffron party belonged to this caste. The number of Brahmins is 13.
This is so in spite of the fact that both the states have numerically strong presence of Brahmins.
The support given by non-Yadav backwards and non-Jatav Dalits to the BJP in UP should not be taken for granted. After all the BJP had on its own won Assembly elections in UP at least twice in 1990s yet it was voted out of power in 2002.
That too when the party twice made Kalyan Singh, a backward the chief minister of the state.
After all the BJP this time distributed 48.6 per cent of its tickets to upper caste candidates, against 24.4 per cent to OBCs, while the Extremely Backward Castes got 14.2 per cent, which is not in accordance with their population.
Ironically more EBC candidates of the BJP lost in comparison to other BJP candidates.
Dalits are a bit lucky as they have the benefit of reserved seats.
Unlike several other BJP leaders Yogi had in the past opposed reservation.
Analysts are of the view that today in this post-Mandal age when the weaker sections have grown strong––even if Yadavs and Jatavs are not in power––the new UP chief minister will have to do a lot of tight rope walking and avoid raking up controversial issues.
Bihar-watchers, however, are of the view that the saffron party can not, at least in the near future, project any upper casteman as the chief minister here as they are numerically not so strong.
