Leaders changing sides - before the elections - is not an unusual scenario in India. In general, such crossovers are by the leaders who miss to get the candidature of their respective parties and are out of the fear to miss the bus. Therefore, trying to read much out of it may not give any useful insight. But, if there are movements across parties or alliances much before the candidate selection process of the political parties starts, it can’t be taken just as an effort to ensure to be in the electoral fray through one or the other party. It may be much more than that, and if we try to read it carefully, it may give some indications of any possible change in the political landscape of the constituency. After all, politics – no one knows - better than the politicians themselves.
In Bihar, the upcoming assembly election is due in November, at this point even the seat sharing discussions are not closed in the two alliances, and already some leaders have changed sides - from Mahagathbandhan to the NDA or the other way. Let’s try to see if these crossovers are giving some indications of the ground reality in the context of the upcoming assembly election in the state.
The recent crossovers from Mahagathbandhan to the NDA are – Chandrika Rai, Jaivardhan Yadav, Faraz Fatmi, Maheshwar Prasad Yadav, Prema Chaudhary, Dr. Ashok Kumar and Uday Narayan Rai alias Bhola Rai from the RJD to the JDU. Purnima Yadav and Sudarshan Kumar from the Congress party to the JDU. On the other side, Shyam Rajak has moved from the JDU to the RJD.
Majority of the leaders who have changed sides are either Yadav, Muslim or from the Upper castes or/and have high number of electorates from one of these social groups in their respective assembly constituencies. Therefore, let’s try to see if the recent crossovers are giving some indication for the important three political constituencies in Bihar – 14 % Yadav, 16% Muslims and 16% upper castes.
Muslim Electorates
Shyam Rajak has won election from Phulwari Sharif (an SC reserve constituency) 6 out of 7 times in last 25 years. From quite some time there was lot of talk about he being not happy in the JDU, but the real concern here seems to be the fact that more than 50% electorate in Phulwari Sharif are Muslims, and there is a general feeling in the state and in Phulwari Sharif that this time Muslims may consolidate against the NDA and in favor of Mahagathbandhan. After winning election from Phulwari Sharif for 3 consecutive terms as RJD candidate, he switched side and joined the JDU in 2009, won the next two elections in Phulwari Sharif on JDU ticket and now is back in the RJD. His switching loyalty from the RJD to the JDU and then back to the RJD - coincides with the growing connection of Nitish Kumar with the Muslims in the state while being in power in the state and a possible disconnect in last couple of years.
But then there are leaders like Faraz Fatmi who has crossed over from the RJD to the JDU. His father has been Member of Parliament for 4 times from Darbhanga and definitely has some influence among the Muslims in his area. His exit from the RJD was expected as his father had moved out of the RJD in 2019 and is currently with the JDU. The father-son duo choosing the JDU to be with indicates that even though the Muslims are up against the BJP and the NDA in Bihar, JDU is still a distant second choice for them in the 2020 assembly election in the state.
Yadav Constituency
Multiple Yadav leaders have crossed over from the RJD to the JDU. It includes Chandrika Rai, RJD MLA of Parsa. He is son of late Daroga Prasad Rai, the first Yadav Chief Minister of Bihar, and in that capacity he has the respect of the Yadav in Bihar. Parsa has been Chandrika Rai’s family seat; Daroga Prasad Rai had got elected multiple times from this constituency in the past. After demise of Daroga Prasad Rai in 1981, Chandrika Rai got involved in the electoral politics and since then he has been elected 6 out of 8 times from Parsa. Jaivardhan Yadav, RJD MLA from Paliganj assembly constituency is grandson of once the tallest Yadav leader of Bihar, late Ram Lakhan Singh Yadav, who was fondly called as Sher-e-Bihar. Bhola Rai was a senior leader of the RJD and an ex MLA of Raghopur, he was a long time loyal of the Lalu Prasad family, he had vacated this seat for Lalu Prasad in 1995 and from then onwards, Raghopur has been the RJD’s first family constituency and Bhola Rai as the representative of the family had always led the party at ground and had contributed in the victory of the family in Raghopur (except in 2010 when Rabri Devi had lost here, RJD first family has never lost here). Maheshwar Prasad Yadav, RJD MLA of Gaighat – had been the face of RJD in Gaighat, he has been elected 5 out of 7 times in last 30 years from Gaighat.
All these leaders are not having pan Bihar influence on the Yadav voters, but they are definitely having strong influence on the Yadav voters in their own assembly constituencies. Their decisions to change sides indicate that they have the confidence to retain the support of the Yadav in their respective constituencies even without being on the side of the RJD and Lalu Prasad. This further indicates that Lalu Prasad and his party has no more monopoly on the Yadav voters in Bihar. Over time, multiple Yadav leaders from within the RJD and from other parties have emerged as dominant Yadav chhatraps in different assembly constituencies and have been successful in building considerable support base among the local Yadavs.
Upper Castes
Sudarshan Kumar, MLA of Barbigha is grandson of late Rajo Singh, who was a dominant Congress party leader and had lot of influence especially among the upper caste Bhumihar in Barbigha and adjoining areas in the Sheikhpura district. Sudarshan is trying to get into the legacy of his grandfather and father late Sanjay Singh. His changing side indicates that for the 2020 assembly election the upper castes electorates may consolidate in favor of the NDA and may not vote even for favorable candidates of Mahagathbandhan.
Apart from giving some indications of possible mood of the three important constituencies – The Yadav, Muslims and the Upper castes - there is one more aspect of these crossovers. All these leaders who have left the RJD or the Congress party - has joined the JDU and not the BJP or the LJP. This reemphasizes the fact that Nitish Kumar continues to be the only option acceptable to all sections of the society in Bihar, and probably so is as a safe bet for the politicians and for the people of Bihar for the 2020 assembly election.
*Rahul Vatsa is a political,social analyst from Bihar. He can be reached at vatsa.rahul@gmail.com
