GRAND ALLIANCE REGISTERS MORAL VICTORY BEFORE BIHAR GOES TO POLLS

Engr Maanohar Yadav*

Bihar assembly poll is a litmus test for PM Modi after the BJP,s disastrous defeat in Delhi at the hands of “AAP” . In Delhi , BJP faced just one person – Kejriwal – who by all standards is new to the game of Politics .Here in Bihar , BJP faces two political stalwarts . In political ( Bihari ) Jargon , people have named them , not just the “ AAP” of Delhi but the “ BAAPS” of politics . In the run up , BJP has very cautiously planned its strategy to fight the duo + Indian National Congress . Unlike Maharastra , where it dumped the trusted ally “ Shiv Sena “ , in Bihar , they are desperate to make new friends including “ Paswan “ who resigned as a Union Cabinet after Godara massacre under the nose of PM Modi ( then the CM of Gujrat ). This is a great set back for the party with a difference & certainly a moral victory for the GA ,who forced BJP to tow this line to save its prestige . BJP , besides , in alliance with Former CM Manjhi & Keori leader Khushwaha is also hobnobbing with the likes of “ Pappu Yadav” & indirectly in match fixing with Hyderabadi Barrister + (as per peoples belief ) secret understanding with Netaji Mulayam Singh , however it is still not sure of a clear victory . Notwithstanding the media projection that NDA is leading by some 16 seats or by two percent to four percent , BJP , is thoroughly uncomfortable . The anxiety lies in the very fact that PM Modi has had to go for several rallies in one day ( double than earlier planned ) & Amit Shah – His trust-worthy Party President is permanently camping in Patna & Bihar .

Media ( often perceived as Modi Friendly ) has been all out and still continuing to air the “ Scientifically –guided – Missile of “ Azam Khan & its fireworks .May be , Azam Khan did it for a valid political reason such as : Claiming himself to be the only National Muslim face ( dwarfing all attempts of Hyderabadi Barristers, claims to be the only champion of Muslim cause ) , but public at large felt that it was a “ salvo “ at the behest of BJP leadership to polarize the votes on communal lines . However , till today , it seems there are no buyers in Bihar on these lines ( Thanks to the Bihar Govt ,The EC & in particular the Biharis to defy the general perception ) .

Much after , Azam Khan,s statement , ABP news had shown a survey report , showing NDA begging 128 seats against the 112 of Grand alliance . This is despite the fact that over a dozen Central Ministers are camping , connecting to the people and organizing rallies of PM Modi , development card vs jungle-raj card played up over and over again , caste card laid out with thorough deliberations , wild card by Giriraj Singh ( only OBC leader will be CM ) .

What worries the BJP , if it is leading with 128 ?

1.It has to depend only on the Charisma of PM Modi , other leaders have no roots throughout the state like Lalu & Nitish . Hence booth management may be poorer than expected

2. Outbursts by party MP RK Singh , supported by Shatrugan Sinha & Vikram Thakur . BJP is scared of losing Rajput votes

3. RSS Chief Bhagwat,s statement on reservation is the biggest worry of all , despite the assurance by Party President and other office bearers . It may neutralize the advantage of “ HAM & LJP “ in the alliance . Also , there would be cross fire between “ Paswan “ & Manjhi on the usual appetite of being Dalit icon .

4. Fielding PM Modi against a CM is a tricky affair .Here CM has nothing to lose ,Lose or win, he is the virtual winner . Too many rallies by PM Modi may be like over-killing some one , who does not have that level of infrastructure or built up . Thus, bright chances of Nitish playing a “ Bechara “ ! like Kejariwal in Delhi .

Given the above , it is really difficult to forecast the election results .There would be many a twist and turns , some star campaigners like Advani , Mulayam Singh , Sharad Pawar , Mayawati & Thakare are yet to take the stage . However safe guess would be on following lines :

1. Fight between NDA & GA is definitely neck to neck (going by the broad indication that PM Modi is still not comfortable and ,is , yet , doing over time in Bihar )

2. Former CM Manjhi will be the CM/Deputy CM in the new set up

3. Eventually , who are the Kauravs and Pandavs , will be decided by the people of Bihar .

4. Hindu mythology – only The Pandavs will win

Warm regards

*An Alumnus of IIM Ahmedabad