Bihar goes to polls in October this year as its assembly term ends .All parties are gearing up themselves to win this election as it is likely to cast a shadow on the ensuing  assembly elections in Punjab , West Bengal and more importantly Uttar Pradesh  . Bihar and Uttar Pradesh  have a lot in common .Both are being ruled by erstwhile members of Janta Parivar & Socialist movement . Nitish Kumar faces the resurgent BJP ,  Manjhi – a Friend  - turned into a foe & Lok Janshakti of erstwhile friend Paswan . For him , comfort comes with the brotherly hug of Lalu Prasad –his one time –great friend and later the bitterest opponent  & Congress party along with smaller forces such CPI ,CPIML etc .

To understand  Bihar , it is not an easy task .Here the caste dynamics and political process  are deeply interlinked . History reveals that it was different in 1931 and after till India became liberated . Later, 1967 saw Congress sliding down and Socialists climbing up . 1990 and after , the scene  was completely changed with the OBC overpowering the upper castes dominance . However later in  the year 2010, with the alliance of JD (U) of Nitish Kumar & BJP as partners in the NDA , a dramatic social change was noted .It was the nexus of forward castes , partly OBC , Partly Dalits & partly minorities sharing their own pound of flesh  against the beaten – OBC Leader Lalu /dalit leader Paswan & off –on partner Congress party.

And now the break up between BJP & Nitish Kumar , new found friendship between Nitish & Lalu , fall out of Manjhi ( a Mahadalit ) with Nitish & his love-tongue for BJP  & new emergence of a broad- secular - alliance ( Nitish , Lalu , Congress & Leftists ) make the task of forecasting the results of Bihar assembly polls very complex but interesting .

Gossip goes that RSS has asked BJP not to appoint a CM nominee before hand , so as to avoid the repeat of  its shocking experiment in Delhi assembly polls  early this year . BJP , as matter of fact,  is once again nervous , whether to shake hand with Manjhi ,& whether or not – to declare a CM face Though their leaders wear an artificial smile and declare that The Modi –wave is still on , but their confidence is deeply shaken ( They see a Kejriwal every where ). However , they have to lay their road map to win the election at any cost . Much ,though , will depend upon the architectures  of  such a road map .Upper caste leaders will push for  CP Thakurs ,OBCs for Shushil Modi & Nand Kishore Yadav . There shall certainly be a battle Royal between  Upper caste leaders , Shushil Modi group & Nand Kishore Yadav sympathizers . Not -naming CP Thakurs will cause lesser damage but not –naming Nandkishore Yadav will hit the BJP badly as the major chunk of Yadav votes will naturally lap into RJD .
Also , for the Broad secular alliance of Nitish ,Lalu , Congress & leftist to emerge as a winning block , it has to shed “ egos “ at the level of top leadership . As it looks on the ground that JD(U) & RJD may not merge before the elections , their leaders shall be called upon to make sacrifices in ticketing between themselves & between other parties like Congress & leftists . Bad blood between warring groups/claimants will have to be sorted out with the offers of Vidhan Sabha ( Council  ) membership to the hopefuls . Also , JD-U/RJD should not shut the doors  on Manjhi , leaving enough space for engagement in the post poll arithmetic .

Today , broader combination of OBCs viz Yadavs , Kurmis & Kories , partly Bhumihars , Minorities  & progressive sections , workers aligned with leftists , indicates a winning chemistry for JDU/RJD/Congress alliance . However , there is a warning sign too ! Minority ( Muslims ) votes must not be split at any cost . And , to achieve this , Nitish & Lalu ought to treat Congress as an equal partner in terms of spirit of “ brotherly accommodation “  , never mind the number of seats for them but with an honorable hand shake. Congress party can also be a great asset for this combination . Besides  Minorities  ,Congress party can also help bring back its erstwhile vote bank from amongst Rajputs ,Bhumihars & Brahamins . At this point of time , it would be highly impossible to bring back Brahamins into Congress fold  . Rajputs are wary as the BJP,s top leadership is in the hands of OBC leaders ( Modi & Shah ). They are sulking too and can be approached . Here Congress has a very vital role to play .

Although very insane strategies have won elections for  Ronald Reagen in 1980 ( Remember – He stole debates notes of Jimmy Carter ) & also for Francois Hollande , who won over Nicolas Sarkosy  in 2012 with an insanely offensive Rap Song , Yet all parties need sound strategies to win any election . BJP is organizationally stronger in Bihar  -compared to JD(U), RJD & Congress .They have a major plus point in having Modi /Shah/ Shushil/Nandkishore Yadav as the men in driving chairs with an OBC background , strongly backed by forward caste leaders such as CP Thakur &Singh ( a prominent- Hindu ideologue & upper caste leader ). They also have a brilliant strategist in Dr Bhupendra Yadav  as the General Secretary in charge . RJD has the boss & super top strategist in Lalu Yadav . Nitish , The Electrical Engineer is busy connecting his wires well , with a double check that there are no short circuits & no naked wires to avoid a shock . Congress is organizationally very weak , but  has its takers all over . Their old time connections with the Rajput Community can yield some fruitful gains .Therefore , Congress will be wise enough to appoint a Rajput leader , who has appeal amongst the young gen & matching chemistry with the General Secretary in charge ( Dr CP Joshi ).

Congress , at this given time , has two Rajput leaders of reckoning . An old – time - war -horse Shri Digvijay singh & Young turk Jitendra Singh . Digvijay Singh has  lost touch with the youth & also has old time rivalries with Lalus . Jitendra Singh is fresh , energetic & now experienced in the art of ticket distribution ( was involved in Himachal ,Karnataka ,MP & U.P. elections ) . View above , the preferred choice is Jitendra Singh .

At the time of writing  , with the elections still six months away &…….. having known  over six decades that  the politics of Bihar ,has , been influenced by  dynamics of social relations chiefly  manifested  in assertion of caste identity , but it is not as simple as it appears to be , for the dynamics of caste and political preferences  to operate in multiple layers of socio-political structures  and get influenced by processes that are multi-dimensional .

 Therefore , it is although impossible to forecast the end result but it is certain that there shall be a fierce battle for the throne of Patilputra .There wont be a cake walk for  the saffron camp . The myth of invincibility  (  of Narendra Modi )  demolished by AAP in Delhi polls shall continue to haunt the BJP & its allies  ,and at times ,make them nervous too . Also there shall be divided  opinions in the BJP whether to hug Manjhi now and  or marry him after the polls . Manjhi is a live wire , only those who have shock-proof gloves will be able to touch him ( Advantage : Nitish Kumar –The Electrical Engineer )
For JD –U to win or lose will depend upon the grand strategy  of Nitish Kumar  , the warmth between him and Lalu , attitude of Nitish –Lalu duo with the Congress party & other smaller players . Let us also watch out “ Pappu Yadav “ , he has some potential to throw a spanner into the networking of Nitish & Lalu.

 PS : Arrogance can kill all ! The voters ,today, are alert and freelancer , tied to none.  Voters are in mood to be taken for granted after the Delhi polls .Indian democracy is maturing !!!
Engr Maanohar Yadav
Writer , Thinker & Consultant