2015 Assembly Elections in Bihar: Political Parties and the Winnable Political Scenarios!
Dr. Praveen Kumar*
Elections for the 243 seats of the Bihar Legislative Assembly are due this November. Term of the Assembly is ending on 29 Nov 2015. Political activities and speculations, both have intensified. Any reading into the likely pre-election or post-election scenario at best would be a guesswork, and this could be anyone’s guess. Political analysts and political parties, and the electorates themselves possibly would agree that given the present political configuration in the state, a hung Assembly appears to be the most ‘predictable’ outcome, if pre-poll alliances among the parties are not worked out. Political posturing of various national and state political parties ahead of the elections is a clear indication that the parties themselves are not in favour of going alone in the coming Assembly elections in Bihar. Amidst the hectic political activities, which is but expected ahead of the elections, it is pertinent to see, as a student of political science, if new signifiers can be observed during the pre-election developments in Bihar and their likely implications on the future outcomes of the elections.
Two factors appear to have emerged as permanent features of Bihar politics. First, and it is well known through the electoral of history of Bihar politics is the electoral estimates that various political parties undertake before fielding the candidates in the election. This is based on treating different castes and Muslim votes as block votes and calculating how best the combinations of one or more caste block votes and/or the former with the Muslim block votes would produce the most favourable outcome for a candidate or the political party. The candidate’s caste or community background remain important throughout. Second, the state political parties, whose leadership may be seen to be claiming some kind of socialist lineage have failed to maintain cohesion and have undergone multiple splits along caste lines since their emergence on the political scene first in 1934 in the form of Socialist Congress Party. The Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), minus ideology, at present, are the representatives of that political force. The caste and religion as factors in electoral politics of India have come to stay and Bihar is certainly is no exception. The various political parties in Bihar work out various permutations and combinations with an objective to make it to the political outcome that may be the most favourable to them is also a recognised factor, and this is not an exception in politics.
Among the national political parties, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be an important force that may influence the winning configuration in the 2015 Assembly elections singularly. On the other hand, the Indian National Congress or Congress (I) has been on a consistent decline during the past elections. However, in combination with other state or national parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or Communist Parties (Communist Party of India (CPI) or Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), the Party still can make a difference in various constituencies. A look at the electoral performances of these parties in the previous Assembly election (year 2010) would make it clear. The parties that mattered in the previous election would continue to remain significant players in the forthcoming elections, too.
Out of the 243 Assembly seats, the National Democratic Alliance or NDA (BJP and JD(U) together) had won 206 seats. BJP had contested on 102 seats out of which the party had won 91 seats. JD(U), meanwhile had contested on 141 seats, out of which the party won 115 seats. However, it is pertinent to see the total percentage of votes that these parties had polled to get these seats. The BJP’s share inthe valid votes polled in the state was 16.49 per cent and the percentage of votes for the seats that the party had contested was 39.56 per cent. The JD(U), meanwhile had polled 22.58 per cent of the valid votes in the state and 38.77 per cent of the votes for the seats that the party had contested. Congress had contested on all the 243 seats and had managed to get 8.37 per cent of the total votes polled. CPI, CPM and BSP’s share of votes in the constituencies from where that the parties had contested were 7.5, 5.59 and 3.27. The RJD, meanwhile had fielded candidates on 168 seats, out of which it could win only 22. RJD’s share in valid votes polled in the state was 18.84 per cent (more than what the BJP had) and the vote per cent in the seats contested was 27.31.
Now, to understand the likely permutation and combinations that the parties may be thinking of giving a try in order to achieve the favourable outcome for themselves in the forthcoming election, we also needto look at the runner’s up position and the third position that the parties secured in the previous Assembly election. In not less than 117 seats the RJD had secured the second position. LJP had secured second position in at least 45 constituencies, Congress had the second position in more than 17 seats, while CPI, CPM and BSP had second positions in four, one and three seats. The Congress, however, had secured third position in at least 90 constituencies and the RJD had the same position in at least 19 constituencies. At the same time in many of the constituencies the second and the third position had alternated between the RJD and the Congress. The LJP, CPI, CPM and BSP had third position in 14, 9, 4 and 14 constituencies.
Presently, the RJD and JD (U) appear to be negotiating a deal for the division of seats between them over which their candidates may contests the elections. Although reports are indicating differences over the kind of alliance that they may like to have, the number of seats that the parties each would like to contest in the elections and the name of the Chief Ministerial candidate. If this combination is worked out, and as the RJD Chief, Laloo Prasad Yadav has reportedly been saying that all other parties should come together against the BJP, this would lead to a favourable outcome for the parties against the BJP. However, this is not going to be simple and the leaders of non-BJP parties are aware of it. Even within the JD(U) there appears to be lack of consensus over the name of the leader. The JD(U) has seen intra-party issues in the recent times. The issues related to the former Chief Minister Mr. Jitan Ram Manjhi and recent statement of Transport Minister Mr. Ramai Ram are case in point. Both are Dalit leaders.
If the previous election is taken as a benchmark, where RJD’s position was worse than the preceding election of 2005 in which the party had won 54 seats and also polled 32.63 per cent of votes in the constituencies where it had contested the elections, its coming together with JD (U) could lead to a favourable outcome for the RJD. Given the fact that RJD had secured second position in at least 117 constituencies, it would not be a surprise that the party would stand to gain by contesting election together with the JD(U). The JD(U), however, is in a position to bargain from the position of strength. The options for the party are more open, when it comes to contest the elections along with the BJP. The Party has done so in the previous elections and the outcomes were favourable. However, the JD(U) leadership may not be so sure of its victory when it decides to go alone in the polls. Meanwhile, the party has a history of differences and splits with the RJD and there could be leadership issues and ego clashes between the leaders even if the parties may come together. However, this is not to say that politics is not about the art of not making the impossible and that there are not permanent friends or foes in politics.
Congress’ position, thus far, could be said to be ambivalent. The party needs to make its presence felt among the electorates. In the previous election, it had second position in at least 17 seats. A careful working out of political partnership with one of the state parties or national parties would be an advantage for the Party. The party has, possibly, already faced the worst situation with only four seats in the Assembly and anything more than that would be a gain for the party. However, it is also important to note that the party had secured third position in not less than 90 constituencies during the previous election. Keeping in view the electoral performances of Congress and RJD in the previous election, if he parties decide to work out some understanding, this possibly would be beneficial for both of them, provided this happens. In this scenario too, the RJD appears to be the net gainer. As of now, Congress appears to be more inclined to go along with the JD(U), if and, as and when this may happen.
LJP has certainly gained in the General elections of 2014 by making an understanding with the BJP. Given the current political configuration at the Centre and uncertainty of the likely outcomes of any change for the forthcoming Assembly election in that, the LJP leader Mr. Ram Vilas Paswan would not like to disturb the current arrangement. He had only three seats in the previous Assembly election. One advantage that Mr. Paswan has is his image as a Dalit leader in the state. However, his image as a Dalit leader has undergone changes over the period of time. He is seen more as an elite leader. It is this transformation that has led to the creation of space for other leaders to fill in. Certainly leaders like Jitan Ram Manjhi and Rami Ram appear to be aspiring to fill this void. Should a situation arise that posing a leader from the Dait community as Chief Ministerial candidate becomes a necessity, these leaders would aspire for that position. In that condition, Ram Vilas Paswan could, perhaps, be a wild card for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
BJP has advantages and disadvantages, both. The party is not a part of the state ruling coalition. However, the party is the ruling party of the Union Government. How far the Modi charisma can still be banked upon in the Bihar Assembly elections would be a matter of debate. However, the way, JD(U)’s victory was tied to the success of BJP in the previous two elections, the same is applicable for the BJP, as well. Assembly elections would very much be influenced by local issues, and if the percentage of votes polled by various parties in the previous elections are an indication, combining together of two or more state parties or state parties with the national parties would certainly make the chances of BJP gaining an impressive figure in the elections a tough task.
Bihar has certainly made improvements on a numbers of fronts during the past two tenures of Mr. Nitish Kumar. Even his critiques would agree to this. As per the state Economic Survey 2014-15, “during 2005-06 to 2009-10, the GSDP at constant prices grew at an annual rate of 10.2 percent; between 2010-11 and 2013-14, the growth rate was even higher at 10.4 percent.” Per capita income in Bihar is still less than the national average, but has improved over the years to Rs. 15,650. Road and communication infrastructure too has improved, with a total of 45.75 thousand km road added during one year till Sep 2014. Total literacy rate too has improved to 61.8 per cent in the year 2011 from 47 per cent in the year 2001, though gender disparity remains in this field. The overall security and industry environment too has improved in Bihar, and this has been acknowledged across the nation. Despite all these developments, among other things, the state needs to do much in order to catch up with other states on all of these fronts and education and employment are the two areas that need the most attention in the state.
Even while performance was the key to the success of NDA in the 2010 elections, the dynamics that has been discussed in the preceding paragraphs mattered, even then. This time the political environment has changed. BJP and JD(U) are separated and other parties are working out winnable political configurations. RJD appears to have recuperated a bit. In the Assembly bi-elections that were held on 21 Jun 2014, RJD JD(U) and Congress had won six seats together out of ten seats. RJD had won three of them, JD(U) won two and Congress one seat. It appears that keeping this performance in mind, RJD would try its best to push for contesting the elections with non-BJP parties on its side. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency factor also may play against Mr. Nitish Kumar. Amidst this, it would interesting to see how politics unfolds in the state of Bihar in 2015.
